Freezing the Electoral Body: Testing a Third Way

The French presence in Caledonia cannot be threatened, except in the event of World War ¹ , … Pierre MESMER, Prime Minister, 1972.

Addressed to Xavier Denaux, Minister of Overseas Territories, through a circular dated 19 January 1972, this sentence from the Prime Minister of the French Republic at the time is equivocal, namely that France will never give independence to New Caledonia and that a world war would be needed for this, perhaps, to happen .

Since the first demands for independence were made by the Kanak people , they have constantly sought a solution to regain their freedom.

However, the study of colonizations and decolonizations, particularly in Europe, has shown to date only two possible outcomes: either the colonizing country decides to withdraw of its own accord, or the colonized people try, by force of arms , alone or with allies, to regain their rights.

If the New Hebrides (Vanuatu) were “lucky” enough in 1980 to obtain their independence via the first solution, New Caledonia in the same decade had to resolve to take the second path through an armed conflict that lasted almost 4 years which unfortunately did not succeed . New Caledonia remains to this day a French possession .

However, faced with this situation, the independence leaders have opened a third option: that of “freezing the electoral body”.

Indeed, by signing the Matignon peace accords in 1988 and then those of Noumea in 1998, the Kanak independence leaders decided with the State to freeze the electoral body in order to resolve the problem of colonization via a democratic solution through the ballot box with a particularity aimed at restricting the number of people having the right to express themselves (vote) in the self-determination referendums.

The primary objective for the independentists is to restrict the settlement policy implemented by the metropolis for several years, aiming to make the Kanaks a minority in their own country ² , thus controlling and regulating the immigration (mobility) of people from metropolitan France or other overseas territories (Reunion, Wallis and Futuna, etc.), who are today very often against this freeze.

However, it is possible to give another reading to this freezing of the electoral body which, still on the independence side, would consist of allowing the Kanak people to be in the majority again in several years, not only demographically but also electorally , and thus, when a new self-determination vote is called, to access full sovereignty through the ballot box . The period in between would allow them to develop with the support of the State.

This vision, although based for some (non-independence supporters) on a violation of the fundamental rights of the constitution or even human rights, would however offer a third outcome allowing on the one hand the independence supporters to obtain access to full sovereignty , in a democratic manner, through the ballot box, thus renouncing the path of arms and on the other hand, for the State, the first peaceful decolonization in its history without clashes and a feeling of abandonment by the populations concerned because decided by the ballot box.

Unfortunately, it would seem that the State has not played fair here again , dangling this illusion before the independence supporters, allowing it to gain time ³ but having only the sole consequence today of rekindling tensions ^4 5 , demonstrating that it has no word ⁶ and leading the Kanaks to perceive the future plan to thaw the electoral body as an act of recolonization .

This Machiavellian situation is very well summarized ⁷ by the doctor of anthropology, Stéphanie Graff , who states that the State by engaging a third party , who are the victims of history, in the negotiations with the colonized people, has put in place a strategy that would serve to counter independence . France uses the settlement colony that it itself created to counter the possibility of independence of the indigenous people . By declaring that it is the Caledonians who must decide their future , he knows very well that the principle of one man – one vote arising from any democracy, then becomes in a context of settlement colonization, an asset against the colonized people and their desire for independence.

Luc Tournabien, author born in Chambéry, arrived in New Caledonia in 1981, having lived through the period of the “events”, describes in his memoirs, reproduced on the back cover of his book ⁸ , that at the antipodes, the State oppresses […] cheats, manipulates, flouts the principles it displays and shows itself ready to do anything not to lose its last settlement colony…

However, occupied in 2024, for 171 years, New Caledonia will soon enter the average duration of colonization by a European state located between 182 ⁹ and 200 ¹⁰ years (see map below) leading all the forces present, both pro-independence and non-independence, to find a solution and make a choice for the period between 2035 and 2053 , the bicentenary year of the taking of possession of the latter by France, with a view to effective decolonization, according to UN criteria.