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Towards a unilateral declaration of independence?
Hello everyone,
The association is getting back to you this week following the Deva interlude which did not result in any agreement regarding the institutional future of New Caledonia.
Many people are wondering what the near future will bring, especially the coming months.
If the elected representatives of the Oceanian Awakening believe that it will be necessary to wait for the future presidential elections at the national level in 2027, others like the loyalists, faithful to themselves, continue to be focused on the provincial elections at the end of 2025 in order to keep their positions, which says a lot about the state of our representative democracy that we believe it is time to replace it (see Representative democracy is dead, make way for direct or semi-direct democracy – APROFED ).
However, another much closer deadline will have to be observed with attention, namely that of September 24, 2025, mentioned several times by the independentists and which could be the subject of a unilateral declaration of independence (DUI) with the formation of a provisional government of Kanaky , as in the 1980s, which would no longer be simply symbolic. We could thus move, in the event of a new attempt to thaw the electoral body or an advancement of the date of the provincial elections, from an insurrection in May 2024 to a revolution in September 2025. The latter could be peaceful, like in India (Gandhi) or like in Germany (in 1989), which led to the fall of the Berlin Wall.
This is in any case the answer provided by the AI to the following questions that we asked it:
– how could the Kanaks govern Caledonia even without the approval of France?
– what are the steps that will allow the Kanaks to establish a Kanak government without the approval of France?
– Provide three historical examples of unilateral independence movements that can shed light on the options (and difficulties) of a Kanak strategy without the approval of the colonial power
– Provide a realistic multi-phase scenario that a Kanak independence movement could follow to establish a Kanaky State, drawing inspiration from international precedents while taking into account the New Caledonian context
– What would have allowed Catalonia to gain independence during the 2016-2017 crisis?
– Provide the communication and political strategy errors of the Catalan independence movement during the 2016-2017 crisis and how the Spanish state was able to effectively counter the Catalan independence attempt
Find all of these questions and answers in the following document:
Examples of DUIs around the world and applied to NC
Although this DUI option has very little chance of success as the AI demonstrates, it is also worth remembering that a more radical option like Gossanah is not to be ruled out.
This is why the association calls on the independentists to get closer to the people who hold the true notion of federalism, (cf. Double federalism – a vision shared by A.Christnacht – APROFED , Federalism according to the vision of Pierre Bretegnier – APROFED, Conference on “Making a country, legal creativity in the service of a common destiny” – APROFED, outline for the future status of New Caledonia by JJ Urvoas – APROFED ), the only middle ground solution, applied elsewhere in the territory for 40 years , and not the truncated one presented by the loyalists, and the State some would say, which was doomed to failure from the start.
The association also wishes to rectify and recall, in view of the comments of the pro-independence MP, that the dual federalism, internal and external , and more broadly the concept of federalism, which we have been promoting within the association since the start of the 2024 insurrection is in no way the project supported by the loyalists which, we repeat, is in no way near or far from federalism (cf. The loyalists’ “territorial federation” project is not federalism – APROFED, The “territorial federation”, a notion that divides – APROFED , New opinion on the “territorial federalization” project supported by the loyalists – APROFED ).
The Matignon-Oudinot and then Noumea agreements allowed the establishment of this concept of federalism, with an internal federalism. All that remains today is to finalize this process with the establishment of an external federalism aimed at reviewing relations with France , by recovering, as we repeat, in particular legislative sovereignty (see the APROFED association for legislative sovereignty – APROFED ) as well as certain powers such as judicial competence, or even having a Constitution as proposed by the State, with a view to acquiring a broader and reinforced autonomy within France that could be described as a “small independence” before the eventuality of total and complete emancipation within a period of 30 years which would again be determined by a self-determination referendum.
In view of the failure of the Rocard method by the President and his Minister for Overseas Territories, it would be interesting for the independentists to apply another solution by September , formulated by the AI and which the President of the Republic, although a follower of this method, did not dare to apply in NC, namely a citizens’ convention , which would allow the solution to come directly from civil society itself.
It would be surprising in any case if the scenario proposed by the State in March as a sort of marginally modified Noumea Agreement could succeed in view of the strong criticism received from all against it (see A draft agreement which is not one – APROFED ). It would be appropriate for the association to avoid the waltz of statutes and projects as in the 80s which only resulted in a rise in tensions. Hoping that the State does not have fun blackmailing local partners in order to endorse this project by removing, for example, the partial unemployment assistance or other economic measures necessary for the country.
The association also recalls another solution that it would be wise to study , used moreover during the era of colonization, which constitutes manumission of which we have already written an article on the subject (cf. Another path to decolonization: emancipation? – APROFED ) and for which we will return shortly.
We wish you a good read and remind you that federalism is the only solution to reconcile unity in diversity.
The APROFED association