Towards a revolution like in 1848?

Hello everyone,

The APROFED association is contacting you again this week following the return of the FLNKS leader to New Caledonia who threatened to exercise his right to self-determination unilaterally if the dialogue fails at the FLNKS congress in the commune of Ponérihouen (see The discreet but very radical return of Christian Tein to New Caledonia ).

The association is asking itself, as it did last August (see Are we heading towards a Kanak spring? – APROFED ), whether the territory, after the May 2024 uprising, might not this time be heading towards a revolution , armed or peaceful, an unfortunately necessary step in order to achieve independence.

Like the Arab Spring in 2010, the situation in New Caledonia can also be compared to the 1848 revolution in France and Europe, known as the “Springtime of the Peoples”.

At the political level, its objective was:

– a desire for more freedom , which is demanded by a large part of the Caledonian population, but also by overseas and metropolitan residents, with a demand for greater autonomy from the central government,

– opposition to the authoritarian and monarchical regime , in this case with regard to Louis Philippe for the period, and closer to our time to the central government and its semi-presidential system which many describe as a republican monarchy,

– a rise in nationalism with subjugated peoples demanding, for example, independence , which is what the FLNKS is promoting today.

At the socio-economic level, the causes of this revolution can be found in:

– the significant inequalities between various segments of the population ,

– the existence of widespread poverty, particularly in cities,

– the presence of massive unemployment linked to an industrial crisis, particularly in the metallurgical sector ,

– and a general dissatisfaction with economic instability .

Metalworkers will be among the strongest groups in the social protest movement.

While in many European countries repression crushed demands for change, particularly nationalist independence, in France the 1848 revolution led to the fall of the king and the establishment of the Second ^Republic . The metalworking sector modernized, preparing France for the industrial revolution of the Second Empire under Napoleon III. On a social level, the beginnings of trade unionism and mutual aid societies emerged, the workday was reduced to 10 hours in Paris, and universal suffrage was introduced (although still limited to men).

Beginning on February 24, 1848, the popular uprising in Paris led, within two days, to the king’s abdication, the formation of a provisional government, and its official proclamation of the Second Republic. It would take nine months for this republic to produce a constitution and its first president, elected by universal suffrage, in December 1848.

During his speech in Ponérihouen, the president of the FLNKS reportedly alluded again to a potential unilateral declaration of independence . However, it is worth recalling here that, according to the International Court of Justice , in a 2010 advisory opinion, this type of declaration would not be illegal under international law  (see Unilateral declaration of independence – Wikipedia ).

However, as demonstrated by certain examples geographically close to New Caledonia that have implemented this process, it does not always achieve the desired effect. The case of West Papua with respect to Indonesia and the case of Bougainville Island with respect to Papua New Guinea are two striking examples.

It is interesting to note, however, that the French state, although opposed to this type of procedure for New Caledonia , is preparing to host the Movement for the Self-Determination of Kabylia (MAK) and the Kabyle provisional government in exile in Paris on December 14, 2025. They intend to announce Kabylia’s unilateral declaration of independence from Algeria (see Kabylia: Declaration of Independence in Paris on December 14 ). Although no state has declared itself ready to recognize a potential Kabyle state, it is highly likely that this will not improve relations between Algeria and its former colonial administering power.

Wishing you a pleasant read and reminding you that federalism is the only solution to reconcile unity in diversity.

L’association APROFED