The Bougainville case study

Hello everyone,

The APROFED association is contacting you again following the dispatch earlier this week of a delegation from the FLNKS to Paris (see “The State must give us this full sovereignty”, says Marie-Pierre Goyetche, member of the political bureau of the FLNKS ).

Determined to oppose the Bougival agreement project as it stands, the pro-independence parties have already obtained the abandonment of the citizen consultation planned for March 2026 (see New Caledonia: the government abandons the early consultation project ) aimed at submitting the project registered in the JORF to the local population for their opinion.

In this regard, it would be worthwhile to continue along this path by amending the Bougival draft agreement, requesting that the State transfer sovereign powers such as justice and internal security, in addition to the foreign relations powers already stipulated in the text. This would ensure an equitable distribution of sovereign powers between the State and New Caledonia. Such a provision would allow the territory to regain its autonomy through a quasi-federal or quasi-protectorate status, which the association describes as “mini-independence.” This would enable the pro-independence movement to emerge from these negotiations with a stronger position, securing additional gains beyond those of the Nouméa Accord.

A review clause through the setting of a new self-determination date by 2053 would allow, in addition to the reconstruction period, for a new assessment of this new status and for drawing conclusions, namely: to continue it (within France), to amend it or to end it (by becoming independent).

The ball is now in the court of the State which, as we have repeatedly reminded, does not intend to give New Caledonia its independence (see 4 reasons why France will never grant independence to New Caledonia – APROFED ).

As mentioned in several articles by the association, the only circumstances under which France would grant the territory its freedom would be  :

– New Caledonia no longer possesses mineral wealth , particularly nickel,

– the separatists obtain financial or even military support from one or more third countries , ideally from their geographically close neighbors, as was the case for Vanuatu which, faced with an attempted secession by a Francophile fringe, obtained the support of the Papuan army, itself supported by the United Kingdom,

– that France be weakened by an armed conflict or other means.

Because it’s not a given that France will grant independence if a majority vote is in favor . The Faroe Islands and, closer to home, Bougainville Island are perfect examples of this .

Bougainville Island is one of the largest islands in Papua New Guinea, with an area of ​​approximately 10,000 km² and a population of 300,000, and is currently on the path to independence.

In 1989, the Revolutionary Army of Bougainville launched an insurrection . The Papua New Guinea army was forced to withdraw from the island. The Independent Republic of Bougainville , later renamed the Republic of Mekamui, was thus proclaimed. In January 1991, a peace agreement was signed, but fighting resumed with the return of government troops to the island in October 1992. A peace conference in October 1994 resulted in a truce, but the assassination in 1996 of the head of Bougainville’s transitional government reignited the fighting. In March 1997, the new Prime Minister, Bill Skate of the National People’s Congress, was elected in part on a platform of de-escalation. In 2000, the government of Papua New Guinea and the separatists on Bougainville Island reached an agreement providing for the creation of an autonomous government and a referendum on the island’s independence following a period of autonomy . The first autonomous government was elected in 2005, headed by President Joseph Kabui. The guerrilla war resulted in nearly 20,000 deaths (see Bougainville Island — Wikipedia ). Its capital, Arawa, was completely destroyed (see Arawa — Wikipedia).

Already enjoying greater autonomy than other provinces of Papua New Guinea, the island finally obtained a referendum on independence , held between November 23 and December 7, 2019. All adults with Bougainvillean citizenship could vote , whether they resided on the island, in the rest of Papua New Guinea, or abroad. Papua New Guinean citizens without Bougainvillean citizenship who had resided on the island for more than six months, at the latest by the closing date for voter registration, were also eligible to vote. The referendum question was: “Do you agree that Bougainville should be granted: (1) greater autonomy, (2) independence?” The Papua New Guinean government provided details of the consequences of each option in the month preceding the vote .  The option of greater autonomy would thus lead to a negotiated political agreement in which Papua New Guinea would grant more powers to Bougainville’s government, particularly regarding foreign aid and investment, the establishment of international economic relations and agreements with sovereign states, control of civil aviation within its territory, and the management of marine resources in its exclusive economic zone. Bougainville would also obtain greater power in the collection of taxes and duties.

On December 11, Bertie Ahern, chairman of the referendum commission, announced the results: 176,928 voters had voted in favor of independence, representing over 98% of the votes cast. However, this consultation was not legally binding on the Papua New Guinea government, as the results required parliamentary approval, following debate and a ratification vote, to be finalized.

However, the Papua New Guinean parliament is stalling, fearing the country’s fragmentation. In 2021, a joint declaration signed in December 2021 confirmed that this process should lead to Bougainville’s independence between 2025 and 2027 , with a roadmap to be presented to both governments before January 31, 2022. The process was expected to be completed by September 1, 2027. This phased approach over several years was designed to allow Papua New Guinea to make constitutional amendments and Bougainville to draft its own constitution. However, ratification of the agreement was postponed until early 2024, as Bougainville’s president, Ishmael Toroama, accused the Papua New Guinean government of deliberately slowing down the independence process (see Bougainville independence referendum — Wikipedia ).

Indeed, the PNG government prefers to offer an alternative, exploring a federal solution that would maintain ties with the nation while granting Bougainville greater autonomy. It is worth recalling here that Papua New Guinea (PNG) was, until its independence in 1975, a colony partly under German and British rule, and then, after the First World War, a territory under Australian mandate, thus explaining its affinity with the concept of federalism. It should also be noted that PNG remains a member of the Commonwealth of Nations (British). Furthermore, as early as 1976, PNG attempted to introduce a form of federalism into its administration through a provincial government, which helped for a time to contain secessionist movements (see Papua New-Guinea).

One of the goals of federalization is to guarantee political stability and security. By offering Bougainville more autonomy within a federal framework, it could reduce tensions and prevent a further escalation of conflict, while safeguarding Papua New Guinea’s strategic interests. The federal project is also an attempt to balance Bougainville’s aspirations for greater autonomy with the PNG central government’s concerns about preserving national unity. Federalism would allow Bougainville to manage its own affairs while remaining a part of Papua New Guinea.

Bougainville possesses valuable natural resources, including minerals, and the federal model could allow the region to better manage its resources while benefiting from investments and support from the central government.

In summary, the proposed federal project was an attempt to resolve the complex issue of Bougainville’s independence while maintaining national unity and addressing the aspirations of the local population. It represented a compromise that allowed Bougainville greater control over its internal affairs while remaining within the framework of Papua New Guinea.

We thus observe the same procrastination between the State of Papua New Guinea and the island of Bougainville as with France and New Caledonia, where local populations have been waiting for decades for their eventual independence, continually postponed on spurious grounds. It should be noted that the status of the autonomous region of Bougainville is based on the Nouméa Accord (see Papua New Guinea: Federalism as a hypothesis for the future of Bougainville? – University of New Caledonia ).

The association regrets that the federal solution has once again emerged as an afterthought, aimed at keeping Bougainville Island under Papua New Guinea’s control, when this solution should have been proposed earlier to avoid this conflict. The Australian government and its multinational corporations are unfortunately not uninvolved in all these events.

It emerges that the Papua New Guinean state is doing everything in its power to avoid the implementation of independence, proposing, just like the French state for New Caledonia, a hybrid regime described as autonomous or regional, like the Spanish one, including many characteristics attributed to federalism without the desire to fully apply this latter notion, preferring to cling to a nationalism imposed by colonization and globalization, in total opposition to the Papuan and Melanesian way of life, and which was at the origin of the civil war from 1989 to 2001, risking again generating conflicts in the near future.

It should be noted, however, that although the establishment of a separate judicial system and a dedicated police force in Bougainville faced numerous obstacles and took considerably longer, the fact remains that today, the Autonomous Region of Bougainville can establish courts , operating either entirely under island law or under both categories (national and Bougainville law). The region is also empowered to establish a jurisdiction equivalent to the National Court , the highest court in Papua New Guinea. The Regional Constitution of Bougainville also allows it to transfer certain powers in criminal matters, prison administration, and other areas, with the Supreme Court remaining at the national level.

As Caroline Gravelat and Hélène Goiran summarize in their study concerning federalism as a hypothesis for the future of Bougainville  :

– The State of PNG accepted the Bougainville empowerment process insofar as all mining operations had ceased for several years , with no prospect of resumption in the medium term.

– Australia persuaded the Bougainville negotiators to sign the 2001 compromise, although it was non-binding.

– that no state internationally would be willing to recognize Bougainville’s new state . Bougainville’s chances of obtaining regional support are slim.

– if Bougainville were to unilaterally declare itself independent, it is likely that Port Moresby would ignore it,

– as PNG does not wish to resume armed conflict, the most likely scenario would be that time passes without international action, resulting only in a deterioration of relations with PNG.

– the observation of forms of circumvention of constitutional procedures for the transfer of powers,

– the failure of the PNG authorities to respect Bougainville’s distinct identity,

– but despite everything, the observation of 20 years of peace in Bougainville testifies to the serenity in which autonomy was able to be built within a quasi-federal status,

The two experts in history and law concluded that, if circumstances are sufficiently reassuring, the Bougainville authorities could find in the federal path an opportunity to establish themselves as a sovereign state, exercising their internal powers, particularly over their mineral resources, and thus avoid losing face with their citizens. A federated or composite state could be a solution.

Wishing you a pleasant read and reminding you that federalism is the only solution to reconcile unity in diversity.

The APROFED association