;)
The situation in New Caledonia: an isolated case?
Hello everyone,
A remnant of the French empire and the time of colonization, New Caledonia was thus included almost 80 years ago, in 1946, on the list of non-self-governing territories established by the UN aimed at potentially gaining independence (see New Caledonia | The United Nations and decolonization ). Removed from this same list the following year in 1947 at the request of France for having chosen to remain a French Overseas Territory (TOM) with autonomous status, it was again re-inscribed on this list in 1986, at the request of the indigenous people who had not succeeded in recovering their autonomy unilaterally abrogated by the French State in the 1960s with the Billotte and Jacquinot laws, subsequently laying in the 1970s-1980s the foundations of the independence movement which continues to this day.
It has been almost 50 years since the Kanak people, forced by the State, chose independence . However, two generations later, it is clear that the road is still long and the destination almost inaccessible, leading them to seek possible external support.
For while the majority of the Kanak population is pro-independence, it only represents 100,000 individuals. How can one free oneself from the influence of a nation with nearly 70 million inhabitants and a professional army of nearly 240,000 men, except with the support of countries of comparable size or even larger?
Unfortunately, the neighboring powers of New Caledonia in the Pacific, particularly the Anglo-Saxon ones, are today in a situation comparable to France with the management of non-self-governing territories with the same problems. Examples include Norfolk Island for Australia, the Cook Islands and Niue for New Zealand, Puerto Rico for the United States, etc. It is also interesting to note that the non-self-governing territories of these countries, although for the most part so-called associated states, also complain about their status and want to evolve either towards that of a federated state or full independence.
It should also be noted that the racial and segregationist policies implemented in the past by these guardianship countries are not in favour of the Kanak people.
It therefore seems unlikely that local independence leaders will receive any real support from this side, even if these countries would like to keep New Caledonia in their folds in the face of China’s growing influence in the region.
The stranglehold that some of these countries have on international organizations like the UN does not help matters. The example of the withdrawal of around twenty of these countries when the FLNKS submitted a draft Constitution for a possible future independent state of Kanaky to the UN in 1987 (see Political events from 1984 to 1988 in New Caledonia — Wikipedia (wikipedia.org) ) clearly illustrates the reluctance of the last powers administering the non-self-governing territories to allow them to regain their freedoms and self-determination.
Thus, faced with the failure to impose France’s departure through international diplomacy , there remain only two solutions for the Kanak independence leaders, namely:
– the negotiation for a new autonomous status with France , as proposed by the association with the creation of a federated state. Unfortunately, the martyr document proposed in 2023 by the State (see Riots in New Caledonia: how Darmanin set fire to the powder keg (off-investigation.fr) ) with a view to defining the future of New Caledonia after the Noumea Accords seems to take us back to the 1960s with a desire to repeal the current autonomy of the territory to better integrate it into France.
– or the resumption of armed struggle .
The Kanak population, even without an army, has knowledge of the terrain and a proven capacity to cause harm, as demonstrated by the events of this year and as recognized by President Mitterand in the 1980s. It has nevertheless understood that it was no match for France and that resuming the armed struggle would cost it too many human lives, as Anthony Tutugoro recalls in his thesis in 2024 (see 2024 Soutenance de thèse de Anthony Tutugoro (youtube.com)) relating to the strategies for regaining sovereignty by the independence movement in New Caledonia.
Knowing this, it is however appropriate for the French authorities to be careful not to repress both the independence cause and the people who carry it by reestablishing a dominant-dominated relationship, in order not to force it into extremes and lead it to make unwise choices such as: asking for the support of Azerbaijan, or even the president of the Russian Federation, (like certain African or South American countries in the 60s-70s) thus risking to deport to the South Pacific the new cold war which opened between the great powers, following the war in Ukraine, and which already impacts, in addition to Europe, the Near and Middle East and to a lesser extent Africa and the Far East.
In this regard, it is worth recalling the words of the Russian president threatening to deliver weapons to third countries in order to strike Western interests if they delivered long-distance weapons to Ukraine with a view to striking Russian territory (see Vladimir Putin threatens to deliver weapons to third countries in order to strike Western interests (lemonde.fr) ). For information, the Russian navy has a large fleet in the Pacific based in Vladivostok (see Pacific Fleet (Russia) — Wikipedia (wikipedia.org) ) as demonstrated by the “Ocean 2024” exercise (see More than 400 Russian and Chinese ships in the Sea of Japan for a giant military exercise (courrierinternational.com) )
Let us also recall the Sino-American tensions which led China to propose to the Solomon Islands, a Melanesian archipelago located north of New Caledonia, the installation of a permanent military base on their territory. (see China “ensures the security” of the Solomon Islands and asserts itself in the Pacific (lemonde.fr) and China’s influence on the Solomon Islands is “worrying” for security in the Pacific (ouest-france.fr) ).
Although the president of the Union Calédonienne (UC) had specified in June 2024 that he would intensify his efforts in the coming months with the BRICS groups and non-aligned countries (see The UC wants to declare the independence of Kanaky on September 24 – La Voix du Caillou ), it is important to avoid the association going to war and sacrificing 1,000 young people, as representatives of this party had indicated (see Dégel: “a text that responds to a legal and democratic necessity” – La Voix du Caillou ). This is why a political agreement must be reached quickly to avoid reaching these extremes.
A third way of decolonization with France exists and has already been implemented, although it was costly for the country that implemented it, namely Haiti, consisting of buying its independence . This sum is estimated today between 20 and 200 billion dollars (see France: at the UN, Haiti requests the repayment of the independence debt – La Nouvelle Tribune ). However, if each year France pays 1 to 2 billion euros to pay mainly the salaries and pensions of its staff, the independence supporters estimated that almost as much left New Caledonia each year, notably via multinationals. In his book on the decolonization of New Caledonia: what future?, page 77, Joel Kasarhérou goes even further, stating that in 2019 the volume of financial flows at the level of the territory amounted to 4,400 billion fcfp or approximately 36 billion euros. As a reminder, although New Caledonia only represents 10% of the commercial supply of Nickel at the global level, it has 25 to 30% of the planetary reserves of this “green gold” or “devil’s metal” as some call it, a wealth which leads it to be coveted by many countries and which also constitutes one of the reasons why France will never give independence to New Caledonia as we recall in our article: 4 reasons why France will never grant independence to New Caledonia – APROFED
We wish you a good read and remind you that federalism is the only solution to reconcile unity in diversity.
The APROFED association