The APROFED association is getting back to you this week following the fall of the central government once again, just 14 hours after its formation.

If the metropolitan media focus on presenting mainly solutions such as dissolution, cohabitation, impeachment, resignation of the president, etc., the association recalls, as mentioned in its previous article (see The 6 solutions proposed by the AI ​​of governance for France – APROFED ), that there are other alternatives such as a profound constitutional reform aimed at starting again on new institutional bases, in other words studying the development of a 6th republic, why not a federal one. France having already tested through these previous republics, the parliamentary, presidential and semi-presidential regimes.

It should be remembered that 71% of French people said they were ready for this development in an IFOP poll in August of this year (cf. 71% of French people in favour of France becoming federal – APROFED )

In addition, many communities, particularly overseas, have begun to move towards this federal-type status , which the State calls sui generis, such as New Caledonia and Polynesia, and which others also want, such as Martinique, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Corsica, etc.

The latter having been invited to the Elysée Palace on September 30 by the President himself with a view to announcing to them a possible constitutional evolution of their statutes by the end of the year (see Overseas elected officials invited to the Elysée Palace to discuss the “statutory evolutions” of their territories | Outremers360 ).

Unfortunately, as some elected officials who declined the invitation may have assumed (see Part of the Guyanese elected officials boycott Emmanuel Macron’s dinner invitation at the Elysée Palace ), nothing new came out of this meeting lasting several hours, continuing on the part of the State the policy considered in the 1990s, that is to say more than 30 years, called territorial differentiation consisting of proposing to the communities an institutional evolution à la carte, making them believe in access to an autonomy that they still do not have, all this in order to gain time and to reinforce the adage that it is necessary to divide and rule. This is all the more true for the State which takes a very dim view of the dynamic of rapprochement of the different overseas demands under the same banner carried by the initiative group of Baku and another nation that is Azerbaijan.

The consequence is that some overseas parliamentarians are even calling on the president to resign and turn the page on Macronism (see “Macron must resign”: after the resignation of Sébastien Lecornu, overseas parliamentarians are calling for Macronism to turn the page) .

The association, however, regrets the lack of innovation and solidarity on the part of the overseas representatives. Each one played their own part during this invitation, preaching for their parish, while the federalism desired by their predecessors like Senghor or Césaire constitutes the only solution to all their problems. But this is not surprising when we note that each overseas territory has its own “house” or delegation in Paris intended to supposedly help their populations. One might have thought that an “overseas house” would be more relevant. A project has apparently been in the pipeline since 2002 (see Visit to the future Overseas House – Paris 13th – Réunionnais du Monde ).

The fact remains that the President of the Republic, if he really wanted to, could be the political initiator of a change of regime by profoundly transforming the institutions to bring them to a federal system. Indeed, via Article 11 aiming to submit a bill by referendum to the people , the President could decide to submit to the people the drafting of a new Constitution via a specific assembly called Constituent as during the Revolution of 1789 for a duration going until the end of his mandate and which would therefore be adopted and put in place with the appointment of his successor.

Hopefully, this is the kind of decision the president is about to make soon.

The AI ​​even offers us below a day-by-day (and then week-by-week) scenario of what could happen if the current President of the French Republic announced the convening of a constituent assembly to draft a new Constitution.

Week 1: The Announcement

Day 1 — Presidential Address

The President addresses the nation live on television.
He announces:

• • that the Fifth Republic has reached “the end of its cycle”;

• • that he wishes to give the people a voice to rebuild the institutions ;

• • that he will propose a consultative referendum on the creation of a constituent assembly.

 Immediate reaction: political shock.
The media spoke of a “historic moment,” some of a “coup de force,” others of a “founding act.”

Day 2 — Institutional reactions

• • The Presidents of the National Assembly and the Senate expressed their reservations, recalling that the Constitution does not provide for such a procedure.

• • The Constitutional Council says it is “attentive” to the conformity of future acts.

• • Jurists are divided: some see it as a legitimate original constituent power , others as a breach of legality .

Financial markets and the euro are experiencing slight instability (political uncertainty).

Day 3 to 5 — Political Shock

• • The parliamentary opposition accuses the president of wanting to “circumvent the Constitution” and “establish a personal regime.”

• • The parties in favour of a Sixth Republic (LFI, ecologists, some socialists) applaud and call for support for the process.

• • Unions and citizens’ associations are mobilizing to organize refoundation committees .

 Public debate is heating up.
News channels are talking about a “peaceful revolutionary turning point.”

Week 2: Entry into institutional crisis

Day 8 to 10

• • The Prime Minister (if he was not consulted beforehand) may resign , deeming the process unlawful.

• • The president could then appoint a new transitional government , responsible for organizing the referendum.

• • The Senate, more conservative, refuses to participate in the preparation of the referendum text.

 The country is entering a period of constitutional uncertainty.

Day 11 to 14

• • Demonstrations are taking place in several major cities , some in support of the project, others to denounce it.

• • Jurists publish columns: “Should we disobey the Fifth Republic to refound it?”

• • The president announces the date of the referendum by decree.

Weeks 3 to 8: Referendum Campaign

Period

• • The country is becoming highly polarized:

• • • The ” yes ” vote is organized around a discourse of democratic refoundation: proportional representation, citizen-initiated referendum, new balances between powers.

• • • The ” no ” vote denounces an authoritarian drift, a circumvention of Parliament and a leap into the institutional unknown.

• • The media are becoming the main arena of ideological battle.

• • Abstention becomes a key variable.

Month 3: The referendum

D-Day

The French vote on the question:

“Do you approve of the convening of a Constituent Assembly to draft a new Constitution for the Republic?”

• • If the yes vote wins (>55%), the president will rely on this popular legitimacy to proclaim the political end of the Fifth Republic.

• • If the no vote wins, he would be weakened and probably forced to resign.

Months 4 to 6: Installation of the Constituent Assembly

In case of a “yes” victory:

• • The President dissolves the National Assembly.

• • New elections are held to elect constituents (not deputies).

• • The parties present “refoundation” lists.

• • The Constituent Assembly meets at Versailles or at the Palais-Bourbon and begins its work.

 During this period, the president retains his functions, but in a transitional framework.

Months 6 to 18: Work of the Constituent Assembly

The main points:

• • Debates on the type of regime (parliamentary, presidential, semi-presidential).

• • Discussions on new rights (ecology, digital, citizen participation).

• • Public consultation via citizen forums or digital platforms.

• • Drafting of the draft Constitution , submitted to final referendum.

Months 18 to 24: Adoption of the new Constitution

• • The project is subject to referendum.

• • If the “yes” vote wins, the Sixth Republic is officially born.

• • The president could resign to allow elections under the new framework.

• • The country then entered a new constitutional era , marked by renewed legitimacy but a heavy institutional past.

General assessment

We wish you a good read and remind you that federalism is the only solution to reconcile unity in diversity.