Are we heading towards a Kanak spring?

The APROFED association is getting back to you this week following the rejection of the Bougival draft agreement by the FLNKS, preferring the Kanaky agreement to be implemented by September 24, 2025.

While some believe that this maneuver is a means of putting pressure on the State to grant more powers to the territory than what is currently proposed in the draft agreement, others seem to think that we are perhaps on the eve of a Kanak spring like the Arab springs that the countries of the Maghreb and the Near and Middle East have experienced.

As a reminder, the expression “Arab Spring”, referring to the “Spring of Peoples” that European countries experienced in 1848, is a set of popular protests that occurred in many countries of the Arab world from 2010.

Of varying scale and intensity, these national movements have been described as awakenings, revolts and even Arab revolutions (see Arab Spring – Wikipedia ).

Besides the departure of dictators, the main causes of these movements with a strong social dimension are the lack of individual and public freedoms, corruption, unemployment, poverty, the high cost of living as well as a need for democracy that is not a mere facade. The fall in raw materials produced (as for Nickel in NC), the rise in food prices, the fall in income from tourism, the rise in demographics, the weakness of agricultural production and the rise in the price of imported foodstuffs lead the demonstrators to demand a better sharing of wealth, better living conditions, jobs and dignity, which is found in the foundations of the struggle of the Kanak people as David Chappell demonstrates in his book: Le réveil Kanak (see Suggestion of a book to read: Le réveil Kanak by David Chappell – APROFED )

While many of these revolutions resulted in the departure of many leaders and reforms in some of the countries within the next 2 to 3 years, others where the state preferred the use of force ended in civil war, as in Syria, Libya, etc.

However, as Katherine Seymor explains in her article entitled The Cycle of Dependence, where she presents the 4 stages towards autonomy, in her work supporting women in the context of their couple relationships (see Cycle of Dependence and its 4 stages Towards Autonomy ), it is possible to see that in order to free oneself from dependence and oppression and in order to achieve interdependence and liberation, it is necessary to go through a phase of revolution or counter-dependence and independence or separation. This type of cycle also prevails in group and societal relationships.

As already mentioned in several of its articles (see Towards a unilateral declaration of independence? – APROFED ; Neither Associated State, Nor Confederate State, The French State has said “no” – APROFED ), the association therefore wonders whether, after the May 2024 insurrection, the territory would not be heading towards a revolution, even a peaceful one.

It is worth remembering that during the Arab Spring, young people (15-29 years old) were the main driving force behind the revolutions . Their underemployment was at the root of these revolts.

If during the events of the 1980s, the independentists had announced a unilateral declaration of independence with the establishment of a flag, a provisional government, the development of a Constitution for the country, … which turned out to be more symbolic than anything else, it could be that today they are trying to transform these symbols of yesterday into concrete actions on the ground.

We wish you a good read and remind you that federalism is the only solution to reconcile unity in diversity.