Without France

Some Caledonians have declared that they voted in the self-determination elections against independence and therefore for New Caledonia to remain within France , but by default . Their fears about the territory’s economic future, fueled by certain non-independence politicians ¹ comparing the independent Oceanian countries of the region to certain poor African countries, weighed in the balance. It should, however, be recalled in passing that if a good number of independent states today encounter difficulties it is because they were colonized yesterday and although now sovereign, the former colonizing powers still continue to maintain a stranglehold for economic reasons linked to raw materials and geopolitics, thus inciting certain powers to call for a new world order ² .

However, there are two alternative powers in the Pacific that could provide a replacement solution that the independence movement has not developed and that could have led some voters to avoid abstaining or making the aforementioned choice. These two powers are: Australia and New Zealand.

With a GDP per capita close to that of France for New Zealand and even higher for Australia ³ , according to the World Bank in 2022, a democracy index above that of France ⁴ , New Zealand having 2nd place behind Norway in 2023, a human development index (HDI) also higher for the 2 countries compared to France , with 5th place in the ranking for Australia and 13th place for New Zealand for 28th place for France in 2021 ⁵ and with a ranking of the 2 countries above France in terms of the countries where people live the happiest ⁶ , Australia and New Zealand therefore have significant assets .

It is therefore surprising that local separatists have not developed this solution, given that Australia,  in particular in 2022, designated within its government the appointment of a “Minister Delegate for the Republic” ⁷ with a view to creating a republic similar to what the Kanaks wish to create for New Caledonia . This failure is all the more surprising given that relations between Australia, New Zealand and France have never been at their best ⁸ , both in the past due to the period of “events” and the nuclear issue and today, according to Eric Descheemaeker, a professor at the University of Melbourne, who points out that Australia has never seen France as an ally or a friend ⁹ , the latter finding itself alone in defending its interests in the Pacific. New Caledonia still remains the only non-self-governing territory among its close neighbors, all of Anglo-Saxon origin.

Australia and New Zealand are already playing their roles as major powers in the region, the former in relation to Melanesia and the latter in relation to Polynesia. Micronesia is partly managed by the United States, a privileged ally of the Australians, via the AUKUS ¹⁰ or the Five Eyes.

This is why, if the idea of ​​creating a federal state with France seems natural in order to avoid a local conflict, joining forces with our Oceanian counterparts, including Australia, which is already a federation , and New Zealand, would be just as natural, especially since all the Oceanian states are already grouped together within a body called: the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) ¹¹ .

The Churchillian idea of ​​the creation of the “United States of Oceania” like the “United States of Europe” put forward by the former British Prime Minister, developed by Epeli Hau’ofa, a Tongan essayist, writer and anthropologist who wrote on Oceanian thought and taken up by Paul Wamo in an interview with Anne Bocandé ¹² , shows that this idea is not new. It remains to be known.

It is not surprising that a Tongan had this idea, as the state of Tonga was once a powerful empire in Oceania ¹³ , stretching from Niue to the Solomon Islands, via Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, Tuvalu, Fiji. It would have been contemporary with the Micronesian empire based in Yap, which today is a federation called the Federated States of Micronesia ¹⁴ .

Because if for some powers, Oceania represents islands in an ocean, dust ¹⁵ compared to the European continent, for the Oceanians the territory is the sea which turns out to be once all the EEZs combined 10 times larger than Europe with nearly 40 million km² for 4 million km² for the European Union (without Russia). New Caledonia and French Polynesia together represent 6 million km² or 60% of the French EEZ ¹⁶ .

Australia and New Zealand would thus have the largest Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the world. All the combined GDPs of the Oceanian countries would place this Oceanian federation in the top 10 of the largest economic powers on the planet ¹⁷ .

This federation is therefore only possible through the acquisition by New Caledonia of its full sovereignty, recovering the sovereign powers of the French State and then delegating them to the Oceanian federation . If this option is conceivable, it is still necessary for Australia and New Zealand to support New Caledonia in this regard.