4 reasons why France will never grant independence to New Caledonia

If the Comoros and Djibouti are autonomous, it is because they only have cassava and bananas. New Caledonia […] is a block of nickel. Eugène Claudius-Petit, vice-president of the National Assembly, July 26, 1971 .

The number one reason  why France will never give independence to New Caledonia is its nickel, called “green gold”.

It is worth remembering that the primary goal of colonization was the acquisition of raw materials, particularly for a 19th-century Europe in the midst of the industrial revolution. The civilizing mission was a mere pretext.

However, New Caledonia has around 25% of the world’s nickel resources, discovered in 1864 by Jules Garnier, who gave his name to the New Caledonian ore: garnierite.

As a reminder, nickel is an essential element in the steel industry . Particularly appreciated for its ductility, malleability and resistance to oxidation, nickel is known for its use in stainless steels.

Nickel is also essential in the manufacture of batteries for electric and hybrid cars , along with lithium, cobalt and manganese. Without this component, the success of the ecological transition and therefore the fight against global warming would be compromised ¹ .

Reason number 2 is that France considers the decolonization issue to have been closed for more than 40 years, with the last independence of Vanuatu (New Hebrides) in 1980.

New Caledonia’s access to full sovereignty would reopen a period of uncertainty for France , which still today consists of numerous territories from its former colonial empire.

In 1961, when the UN created the decolonization committee, the French position towards the committee was one of radical opposition ² .

In 1986, New Caledonia was described as a lock by the Minister of Overseas Territories, Bernard Pons, who added that it was necessary to fight at the UN to preserve it because it was the lock  of Overseas Territories , meaning by this that if New Caledonia became independent, the other Overseas Territories not only in the Pacific but also in the Indian Ocean and even in the Caribbean could follow , even Corsica.

This is why in 1986, France used all its diplomatic power to prevent New Caledonia from being reinstated on the UN list of non-self-governing territories, in vain , since resolution 41/41A of 2 December reinstated the territory on this list ³ .

The subsequent re-inclusion of French Polynesia on the list of Non-Self-Governing Territories received the same welcome from France. Whenever a Polynesian independence supporter speaks at the UN, the French representative leaves the meeting, practicing the empty chair policy. In 2018, a visiting mission of the Special Committee to New Caledonia indicated that the French Government continues to support and cooperate with the work of the Special Committee , noting also the useful support and assistance it has provided but reiterating the appeal made by the General Assembly [of the United Nations] to the French Government, asking it to cooperate fully in the work of the Special Committee and to participate officially in its future sessions ⁴ .

Since the 1990s, the UN has increased pressure on administering powers like France that still hold territories to be decolonized, going so far as to proclaim the period from 1990 to 2020 as the period for the elimination of colonialism.

The FLNKS, in accordance with its policy of seeking international support, is almost always present at the Committee’s various meetings and petitions the United Nations General Assembly every year. Non-independence supporters see the Committee’s actions as a weapon in the hands of the FLNKS to force the independence of New Caledonia.

Furthermore, although France accepted the fact that the first people could decide on their self-determination by voting , it ensured that the Kanaks were not the only ones able to vote ⁵ and put them in a minority in demographic terms ⁶ by successive waves of population coming from metropolitan France ⁷ or from other equally colonised territories of the French Overseas Territories, so that they could never obtain any majority .

Like other countries such as England with the Indo-Fijians (Asians) in Fiji, or the English in Ireland as well as in Scotland, or Spain in Catalonia and the Basque country ⁸ .

The boycott by the independence supporters of the 3rd and final referendum in 2021 on the question for or against access to full sovereignty for New Caledonia, added to the abstentions, made it possible to obtain more than 56% ⁹ of people not expressing themselves in favor of remaining within France , i.e. the majority of the New Caledonian population.

Not to mention that France was ready to do anything to ensure that the 3 referendums for or against independence never resulted in independence , even if it meant returning to old habits, namely rigging elections as was the case in other overseas territories in the past such as Réunion ¹⁰ or in former African colonies. Indeed, it appears that the non-independence parties, the majority in the town halls of the South and the West coast of New Caledonia, where metropolitan immigration in the country is concentrated, have organized, with the active complicity of the State, year after year, irregular registrations of French citizens, non-citizens of New Caledonia. These are indeed fraudulent maneuvers aimed at contravening the sincerity of the electorate ¹¹ . Thus, nearly 5,638 people, or 5.6% of the electorate, were fraudulently registered on the electoral lists . When we know that the 2nd self-determination referendum held in 2020 was played out at -5%, with a rate of 46.7% of people in favor of independence, we can understand the comment of the president of the Caledonian congress relating to this vote, namely “fake”. This situation also earned the UN to request the establishment of fair, regular and transparent electoral lists in order to obtain the realization of a free and authentic act of self-determination in accordance with the principles and practices of the UN. It is not surprising that some Caledonians, knowing this, decided to abstain ¹² in order not to participate in this electoral charade . If electoral fraud is recurrent in metropolitan France aimed at making fake voters ¹³ or even dead people ¹⁴ vote , it is distressing to note here that the fear of the French government to see New Caledonia become independent leads it to such practices which leads us to ask what difference there is between France and the Russian Federation ? Because if one does not hide to stuff the ballot boxes, the other proves to be more subtle by acting in the quiet by tinkering with the electoral lists for its part.

However, it is also not certain that the State would have validated the result of a positive vote in favor of independence that would have occurred during one of the 3 referendums. It is appropriate to recall here the case of the Lisbon Treaty of 2007 relating to the European Constitution which, although having been rejected by referendum by the French people, was nevertheless ratified by parliamentary means, betraying the will of the “sovereign people”, qualifying this act for some as a “forfeiture” or even a “coup d’état” ¹⁵ . The case of the Faroe Islands is another example ¹⁶ . Colonized by Denmark , the Faroese government presented to the Danish government in March 2000 a project of total independence. Cooled, after pressure and threats, the leaders of the Faroe Islands nevertheless decided in 2004 to organize a referendum on this subject. The pro-independence party won with 50.72% of the vote, with a turnout of 91.1%. The Faroese government then announced the forthcoming independence of the Faroe Islands, which had previously held the status of a constituent country . ¹⁷ The Danish government refused , and the status quo was maintained. A new referendum on independence, accepted by the Danish government, was planned for 2018. This was postponed indefinitely .

Reason number 3 is that France considers New Caledonia to be its possession. Like any colony, it certainly represents potential sources of wealth, particularly through its raw materials, but also a strong self-image and power for France .

And France regularly reminds this, particularly to the other nations bordering New Caledonia, which are all now Anglo-Saxon and were all former British colonies.

There is no need to recall here the more than conflictual relationship between England and France beyond the European continent but also during the colonization and conquest of territories, notably in the Pacific with the failure of the establishment of France in New Zealand ¹⁸ or even in Australia ¹⁹ .

Although the Caledonian population is repeatedly told that if it were to become independent it would risk possible new colonisation by China ²⁰ , it is in reality Australia, New Zealand and the “spearhead” group ²¹ that France is more wary of , thus reminding itself, through the launch of its “Indo-Pacific” axis doctrine intended to contain China, of its presence in the Pacific, particularly in New Caledonia, to all the states bordering it, reminding them that New Caledonia remains a French possession to this day.

Reason number 4 and the final reason why France will never allow New Caledonia to become independent is that it does not really believe in the European Union ²² and that if the latter were to disappear, France would retain its former attributes , namely its last colonies, through its overseas territories.

Thanks to its overseas territories, France is present in four of the five oceans of our planet, which makes it, for example, the  second largest maritime domain in the world.

Thus, if New Caledonia were to become independent, dragging in its wake all the last vestiges of the French empire, France would be limited to its metropolitan borders alone, this time with an obligation to achieve results in order to sustain, not to say to ensure the survival of, a European Union whose institutions are regularly attacked, in the face of a globalised planet where France alone could not survive. The abandonment of the last European colonies is considered by some to be the best thing that could happen to Europe, which would allow it to refocus on itself and move forward ²³ .

It is worth remembering here that the European Union is divided into two main groups: the continental territory located in Europe and, due to its colonial past, extra-European territories spread across the globe called Outermost Regions (ORs), to which are added certain special territories of the Member States with a special status which excludes them from the European Union, which are called: the Overseas Countries and Territories, which include the three French Pacific territories of New Caledonia, French Polynesia and Wallis and Futuna.